Dow Jones, Gold, US Dollar, Crude Oil, OPEC+, AUD/USD, RBA

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The mood on the global market remained positive last week. On Wall Street, the Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 gained about 0.3%, 1.1% and 1.9%, respectively. It comes as the market’s “fear gauge” VIX closed at its lowest level since the start of the year. Meanwhile, Britain’s FTSE 100 and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index rose 0.93% and 6.27%, respectively.

The key development was another sharp drop in the 10-year Treasury yield, which fell 5.5% to its lowest level since September. Since October, markets have been pricing in an increasingly dovish Federal Reserve. A closer look at The implied Fed curve shows traders have added at least 75 basis points in rate cuts after 2 years.

Unsurprisingly, this coincided with the worst month for the US dollar since September 2010, when the DXY index fell 5.1%. The clear winner of the drop in dollar and bond yields was gold. XAU/USD rose 8.3% in November, the most since the early stages of the global pandemic in 2020. Another winner was the Japanese yen, which gained 7.1% as USD/JPY fell.

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Markets are focused on an expected change in the pace of Federal Reserve tightening. Countless officials have hinted at slowing the pace of tightening amid what could be a turning point in inflation. But as last week’s US nonfarm payrolls report showed, the labor market remains tight.

Oil remained calm. All eyes next week will turn to the next OPEC+ meeting and the fate of supply. Meanwhile, AUD/USD will be watching the Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision. The Bank of Canada also has something to look forward to in USD/CAD. China released its latest inflation report. What else awaits the markets in the coming week?

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How did the markets fare – week from 28 November

How did the markets fare - week from 28 November

Basic forecasts:

Basic forecast for the S&P 500, DAX 40 and ASX 200 for the week ahead

Global indexes tried to revive the holiday rally earlier this year, breaking the US last week. Still, the flag starts to stick even as we move into the December trade. As expected levels of activity fall but the expectation of key event risk rises, volatility is a high risk and trends are at risk.

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British Pound (GBP) Outlook – GBP/USD Driven Higher by US Dollar, Where Next?

Sterling will have to do some heavy lifting to keep GBP/USD moving higher, and next week’s economic calendar won’t help.

Aussie outlook: US dollar defeat lifts AUD/USD

The Aussie dollar edged higher, while the US dollar managed a whiplash after less-than-hawkish comments from Fed chief Powell. Will AUD/USD make a new high?

US Dollar Weekly Core Forecast: Worst Month Since 2010, Was It Overblown?

The US dollar experienced its worst month since September 2010 as markets aggressively priced in the dovish Federal Reserve. The tight US jobs report suggests the USD move may be overdone.

Euro weekly outlook: EUR/USD at the mercy of the dollar, 1.05 is still key

The Euro failed to hold above 1.05 after the NFP data boosted the USD after a relatively quiet week.

Canadian dollar forecast: USD/CAD looks poised for further growth, BoC rate decision holds key

The Canadian dollar looks set to continue its recent struggles. Will the Bank of Canada spring another surprise at next week’s policy meeting?

Technical predictions:

The dollar battle is increasingly threatening to turn into a real reversal: USDJPY, EURUSD, GBPUSD

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The dollar suffered another stumble in its retreat over the past two months. In the case of the DXY index, we ended the longest stretch above the 200-day moving average on record; while key pairs like USDJPY, EURUSD and GBPUSD are on the cusp of another technical upswing.

Technical forecast for gold and silver: Both are supported by a weak dollar, silver waves

Gold and silver benefited from the weaker dollar, but silver is the dominant of the two metals. Gold consolidates at stern resistance, silver continues higher

S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 Technical Outlook – Long-Term Downtrends Meet Short-Term Uptrends

Recovery in the US stock market at the end of the week interrupted the NFP, but it still remains in the positive zone during the week.

Japanese Yen Technical Outlook: USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY Setup

The Japanese Yen held firm against major peers as the safe-haven currency stabilizes at technical levels. Price action USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY.

— The Body article was written by Daniel Dubrovský, chief strategist for DailyFX.com

— Individual articles compiled by members of the DailyFX team

To contact Daniel, follow him on Twitter:@ddubrovskyFX



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